Insights Collective weekly briefing

VIRUS 

_______________________________________________________ 

Chicago will once again require anyone traveling between the city and Wisconsin to quarantine for 14 days. Wisconsin was on Chicago’s quarantine order list from July 31 to Aug. 18, when officials removed it due to a drop in new daily coronavirus cases in the state. Source: USA Today   

And why is that important [Insights Collective] Officials in Chicago are taking a lot of flak for the economic consequences of their policies – but it’s otherwise hard to argue with an approach that puts the safety of residents as the primary goal. In some circles talk of virus and quarantine has shifted to talk of vaccine and mask wearing – but not everywhere.  Chicago’s quarantine list now includes 18 states and Puerto Rico. While not every destination is as determined as Chicago to stamp out new infections, their doggedness is a reminder that some localities still take the virus seriously. 

 

REOPENING 

_______________________________________________________ 

A recently deployed research survey at EPCOT seems to suggest an increase in capacity is forthcoming. The first survey question asks visitors to assess whether EPCOT was “too crowded.” In addition to the general crowd question, Disney also appears to be interested in whether certain areas seemed to be more crowded than others, as well as whether social distancing reassured the guest. Source / Survey Screenshots: WDWNT  

And why is that important [Insights Collective] …  In contrast to Chicago, the state of Florida has entered a Phase 3 reopening – all establishments can operate at 100% capacity.  For policy wonks you can review the plan here. The most endearing component of the plan is its metric-activated outcomes: When X happens, Y is activated.  Resorts and destinations can learn from this model, which is simply an evolution of the scenario planning approach we’ve been advocating since March. 

ECONOMY 

_______________________________________________________ 

In the second quarter of 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic led to nearly 24,000 lost jobs in Wyoming. The decline was led by a loss of 10,500 jobs in leisure & hospitality services (mostly restaurant and lodging) and a loss of 3,500 jobs in the mineral extraction industry. The tourism industry, either measured by national park visitations or lodging sales, dropped approximately 50% compared to a year ago. Source: Wyoming Department of Administration & Information  

And why is that important [Insights Collective] … The decline in visitation is directly attributed to the state’s national parks being temporarily closed from March into early May.  It’s unclear how long an economic recovery could take, but a full recovery could take years.Support from governments and central banks will be critical to determine the speed of the rebound once the virus is contained.   

 

LODGING  

_______________________________________________________  

Hotels across California are now hosting office-less office workers, remote-learning students and locals looking to escape their homes for a day. Rooms have been converted into remote-work pods available between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Hotel ballrooms and conference centers, short on wedding parties and corporate conventions, are undergoing redesigns to cater to cohorts of socially distanced students. While hotel occupancy typically hovers around 85% during an average year, this year it has tanked, with some hotels reporting 15% occupancy so far. Source: San Francisco Chronicle  

And why is that important [Insights Collective] … While vacation rentals are benefiting from extended-stays, half of U.S. hotel-owners are in danger of foreclosure, according to new research from the AHLA. Further, 68 percent reported that they will be able to last only six more months at current projected revenue and occupancy levels absent any further relief. With those headwinds, hotels will be mixing up their business model to drive any potential revenue to the bottom line.   

NEW REALITIES 

_______________________________________________________ 

An Austrian consumer protection group has filed four civil lawsuits against the country’s government for failing to contain a coronavirus outbreak at an Alpine ski resort. The outbreak has been blamed for thousands of infections worldwide during the early phase of the pandemic. Plaintiffs are seeking damages of up to 100,000 euros ($118,000) each from Austrian federal authorities, who hold ultimate responsibility for enforcing health regulations.  U.S.-style punitive damages aren’t possible under Austria’s legal system, but courts can rule that plaintiffs deserve money for pain and suffering, and for loss of earnings. Source: News4Jax  

And why is that important [Insights Collective] … Legal protections in the U.S. may prevent financial rewards to skiers that file suit – but the threat of negative PR persists.  As mountains reopen for the season, they will have to communicate protocols are best practice,but no guarantee against transmission of Covid-19.