Eagle and Summit counties are at the head of the class. From 2000 to 2010, Summit County led the state in growth of people aged 65 and older, and Eagle County was just behind at No. 3.
More dramatic growth rates yet are now underway. By 2020, according to projections of the state demography office, Eagle County’s population of 65-plus population will increase 163 percent. Summit County should expect 138 percent growth.
“If you think the last 10 years were significant, wait for the next 10 years,” says Elizabeth Garner, who directs the demography office.
But don’t expect everybody to stick around. A new study suggests that many baby boomers and others in their 70s and 80s will, for lack of suitable care facilities, leave – taking their retirement income with them to spend in other locations.
The study by Colorado State University projects an annual $43 million loss to the economy of Eagle County. For Summit County, the loss is estimated at $28 million.
“That is a significant amount of income,” said Dr. Stephan Weiler, an economics professor and associate dean of research in the College of Liberal Arts at CSU. He supervised the study by graduate student Greg Totten.
The economic impact to Eagle County would be as if a town of 1,185 residents were to vanish from the 2020 landscape. Or, if Summit County were to lose a 790-person town.
Assumptions in the study were deliberately conservative, said Weiler. For example, people entering retirement years were assumed to be no more or less affluent than residents overall. Anecdotal observation suggests they tend to be more affluent than somebody in his or her 30s.
Quibbles aside, this study broadly shows just how much economic damage is likely in Eagle and Summit counties if people are deprived of options as they contemplate where to live in retirement.
Some people will leave regardless of local care options. The study assumes that many people may want to be close to grandchildren or just tired of cold and snow after living in mountain valleys for 30, 40 or 50 years. Others, no matter what, will be determined to stay the course in these mountain valleys.
But there’s middle group – estimated at 15 percent of people over 65 — who would like to stick around, but have begun thinking about the difficulties when they can no longer shovel their own sidewalks, or if they should need nursing care on an occasional or full-time basis.
The theme for this on-the-fence group might be reflected in the 1981 song by the Clash: “Should I Stay or Should I Go.”
“They like being there. They prefer to be there. But they can’t, because the facilities are lacking,” says CSU’s Weiler.
If they leave, they will take their income elsewhere. This is mostly money brought into the county from elsewhere sources, such as pension funds, annuities and other sources. Together, with a multiplier effect of additional income spawned by their local expenditures, the total impact is calculated at 3 percent of total income for both counties, according to the CSU study.
Local officials are keenly aware of this potential loss. “What is interesting to me is how significant the dollar values are,” says Eagle County Commissioner Jon Stavney.
A budding partnership between Eagle County and a non-profit organization called Augustana Care can help address the gaping need. The two are considering a partnership to create a care community campus in Eagle. The campus would include a 64-bed facility, with expansion potential to 100 beds.
“It’s an important first step to stem that tide (of people leaving) and allow people who want to age in place, to be able to do so, and be able to spend that time here—and frankly spend their sales tax dollars here and help the community,” says Stavney.
“Taking care of seniors in their last years is a feel-good thing, but it’s also good economics. These data really make that clear,” he adds.
In offering extended care facilities, Eagle County hopes it can lend confidence to this fence-sitting group to stick around and spend their golden years where they most want to spend them.
Eagle County and Augustana are currently examining the financing feasibility for a five-acre site in Eagle Ranch, located within the town of Eagle.
In Stavney’s view, this facility in Eagle alone is not the full answer. He sees the private sector delivering a bridge. That bridge might include independent living but in ways attractive to an aging population of people in their 70s and 80s.
The creation of an extended care facility, says Stavney, will send a strong message that it’s OK to stick around in the mountains.
In facing these choices, Eagle and Summit are not alone. When still young, many people moved to Colorado in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. These baby boomers are now becoming a tsunami heading into retirement.
Other states, such as Arizona, have long had a much larger component of older people. But Colorado stands out in facing such a huge transformation of its population – not the result of new migration, points out Garner, but because of in-place aging.
So far, little has been done to prepare for the needs of this much larger proportion of older people. Particularly at about age 75, people become more acutely conscious of health-care needs and the reality of increasing infirmities.
“It’s probably just human nature,” says Garner. “Not until it’s a crisis do people change. Planning is not something that people really do well.”